A Four-day Federal Holiday Weekend normally represents a tremendous boost in business volume for Casinos. Guest service plans are put to the test and everyone wants to put their best foot forward with a full house watching in order to maximize gaming revenue and employee tipped income. In order to focus the available staff on maximizing profits there should be a solid set of employee schedules based on a comprehensive forecast of daily and hourly guest volumes. And while no advice can be considered hard and fast when it comes to forecasting, here are some tips that may help you become more accurate in predicting how much daily and hourly volume will occur during these very important Friday through Monday holiday time periods:
Divide and Conquer. Separate your daily volume forecast activity from your hourly volume prediction – in most cases you will be more accurate if you to focus on each independently. For example, you should finalize your Saturday forecast of Coin-In independently of how you feel that Saturday volume will be distributed on an hourly basis. Here is a tip – don’t over-analyze your daily volume forecast, pick a representative sample of similar past historical days as a trend reference and then make a call. And remember this bit of advice - always ask for feedback from both Marketing and Operations on Daily volume predictions but rarely ask for assistance on developing forecasts of hourly volume. In the case of hourly volume, Marketing will typically over-estimate the impact of a holiday weekend promotion on hourly volume patterns while Operations will usually give you the worst-case staffing experience they can remember. Neither will help.
Fridays and Saturdays stay closer to Trend. In many cases the actual daily volumes reported for the Friday and Saturday of a holiday weekend will stay very close to recent (non-holiday), trends. Test this theory by reviewing the actual holiday week from prior years with the historical Fridays and Saturday’s leading up to the weekend. Watch for a potential “displacement effect” produced by local Guests moving their normal visitation patterns from one day to another – in the case of Friday and Saturday, if the holiday is more family-centric then some of your higher-frequency Guests may move their normal visitations to earlier in the weekend in order to spend more time at home on Sunday and Monday.
Make the Call on Sundays and Mondays. Here is where the rubber hits the road, for in most cases one of these days will by higher in volume than the other (and both will normally be higher than their recent trends). Remember that on most Federal Weekends either the Sunday or the Monday will be focused on family / religious activities while the other day will be “free” - and that will be the day when the volume increase will really hit. The trick is which day will be high and which low? For the answer look to previous actual volume recorded on the same holiday weekend in prior years, then, review any local event / concert / promotion which could change this year’s daily volume pattern.
Sundays will be like Saturdays (and so on). You have probably heard the old adage that says the Sunday will be like a Saturday and the Monday will be like a Sunday. From an hourly volume percentage this is pretty close to correct – as a starting point. Again, look for area events and activities that could disrupt or displace this pattern, but guest arrival / departure habits usually remain strong and will carry over to holiday Weekends.
Account for Area Events. Federal weekends are noted for large area events and community activities. For example, is there a huge fireworks display in the area? If so, this could reduce the volume during the hours leading up to and during the show, usually family-type events will not produce a big late rush as everyone tends to go home together. Big sporting events (either local or national), may also have an impact on volumes, especially in the area of Table Drop and Poker Rake. Watch for table volumes to lag leading up to and during the event, then brace for a late rush (especially if the home team wins). Remember that Slot volume is usually less impacted by competing sporting events than Table Games / Poker volume.
Finally, don’t forget about the rest of the Holiday Week’s daily forecasting, as in many cases the actual volumes reported for the Tuesday through Thursday time period will be significantly lower than their normal trending, (with Tuesday being the most impacted through Thursday being the least). If you see this trend available then capitalize by reducing the number of employee hours scheduled throughout the balance of week so that any potential overtime expense driven by the big weekend is minimized.
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